Merry Christmas

I share with you my one and only favorite Christmas Carol, sit back, turn up the volume and get get carried away for the next 6 minutes.

May your Christmas be surrounded by the ones you love.

Orko Silver OK.V finds a new suitor

After being left at the alter by Pan American Silver, First Majestic Silver decides that they are willing to buck up for Orko Silver at $2.72/share.

This is an all paper transaction which values Orko on a fully diluted basis of $382 million, given today's environment Orko shareholders have got to feel that Christmas came early and that the Management of First Majestic are feeling very generous at this time of year.

First Majestic Silver Corp. and Orko Silver Corp. have entered into a definitive agreement pursuant to which First Majestic has agreed to acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Orko for consideration of 0.1202 of a common share of First Majestic plus 0.01 cent in cash per Orko common share. The offer implies a value of $2.72 per Orko share based on the closing prices of both First Majestic and Orko's common shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange, respectively, on Dec. 14, 2012. The offer represents a premium of approximately 69 per cent to Orko's 30-day volume-weighted average price for the period ending Dec. 14, 2012. The transaction will be implemented by way of a plan of arrangement under the Business Corporations Act (British Columbia).

 Gary Cope's vision of being carried all the way to production have come true.

Taking profits on Goldquest Mining GQC.V

The recent bounce from $0.40 back to $0.65 has given me the opportunity to sell 30,000 shares of Goldquest Mining.

My game plan with Goldquest is to de-risk  my initial position end end up with about 15,000 shares with a low cost base. Goldquest has had a good bounce this week but the chart indicates resistance at an old support level of $0.75/share.

Further resistance will be met from $1.00-$1.25 as 12 million shares will come free trading on December 22nd.

It would be tough to watch the drop in share price to $0.40 from the perspective of the holders of the $1.25 stock. Their immediate reaction would be that they paid way to much for their stock. Expect these shareholders to be sellers.

Congrats to anyone who follows this blog and managed to pick up a few shares in the low $0.40's. I got a few emails from followers thanking me for the heads up on this one.

Aroway Energy ARW.V another year end tax loss opportunity

I started picking away on Aroway Energy at the $0.44 range as the chart shows a double bottom and a pennant wedge forming. Straight forward this is strictly a year end tax bounce that I am looking for.

Aroway is raising $4,000,000 in around the $0.50-55/share range with Chris Cooper the President of Aroway taking down 400,000 shares and a few pro groups looking to defer taxes.

The TSX Venture Exchange has accepted for filing documentation with respect to a non-brokered private placement for Aroway Energy Inc. announced Nov. 19, 2012:
Number of shares:  6,043,981 flow-through shares; 1,352,000 non-flow-through shares
Purchase price:  55 cents per flow-through share; 50 cents per non-flow-through share
Warrants:  3,021,991 flow-through share purchase warrants to purchase 3,021,991 non-flow-through shares at 65 cents per share for a one-year period; 1,352,000 non-flow-through share purchase warrants to purchase 1,352,000 non-flow-through shares at 60 cents per share for a one-year period
Placees:  69
Insider:  Chris Cooper 400,000 non-flow-through
Pro groups:  Alan Young 35,000 flow-through; James Roger 96,000 flow-through; Chester C. Kmiec 55,000 flow-through; Scott MacDonald 20,000 flow-through.

This financing was put into place to drill a couple of wells over the next month to boost production.

Aroway Energy Inc. has commenced drilling on its 100-per-cent-owned-and-operated Kirkpatrick Lake property in central Alberta. Aroway will be drilling two Ellerslie oil prospects which have been selected from 3-D seismic data interpretation, and are in a very prospective oil fairway with an offsetting pool having produced in excess of 1.39 million barrels of light 38-degree API oil. Both wells will be drilled to an approximate depth of 1,130 metres and will be tied into existing nearby infrastructure immediately upon completion and a short-term production test. Aroway believes there may be three additional wells to be drilled upon the success of the initial test wells.

 The chart indicates that there is support and a double bottom here at $0.44/share and resistance will be felt at the $0.60/share range. Added resistance at the $0.60 range will be forth coming in 4 months when the hold period expires in regards to the recent Private Placement mentioned above.

 I have bought 10000 shares to date at $0.44 and will look at adding another 10000 this week. My exit on Aroway will start around the $0.56/share range. Further upside beyond $0.60 will be met with the warrants associated with the recent financing rendering any further upside mute until production warrants a higher stock price.

San Gold's SGR.TO mommet of capitulation on Friday

With profits from my recent sell orders from Goldquest I have been picking away at San Gold here at the $0.76-0.77 range. I noticed after Friday's close that San Gold traded 9.6 million shares with 9 million traded in a cross on the Pure Trading Network.

This is usually a fund that repositions itself in regards to its holding for year end. Generally one fund will take the tax loss and another fund will take the position at lows of the year.

Anyway you slice it I look for these types of transactions in the market place, especially at this time of year.

Friday I bought another 5000 share of San Gold at $0.77/share and was bidding for another 2000 to bring my position up to 15,000.

Short term resistance will be met at $1.05/share, I will look at de-risking by selling  3/4 of my position and hold the balance for any further upside potential.

There also might be a chance of a take over on deals like San Gold or Brigus Gold within the medium production players looking for gold assets in safe jurisdictions.

Tax loss selling and stink bids

Stink bids during tax loss selling season can be a stroke of luck for some traders. I noticed the Aura Minerals ORA.TO managed a $0.10 trade today.

First Majestic 10 ounce silver bullion coin

Need a Christmas gift? Why not give wealth this year. Click here for the First Majestic store

For silver bullion this 10 oz. coin has got to be one of the finest that you can stack.

Simply beautiful.

Market observations on Goldquest Mining

I have taken note in regards to the recent sell off in Goldquest.

First off the major sponsor of the recent financing's was done by Dundee Securities and they concluded their selling down to the $0.45/share range on November 30th. This was probably due to month end portfolio maintenance.

Selling below $0.45 has trickled off which indicates to me that only those who are selling are doing so from a long position at a much higher price therefor taking a tax loss.

Volume was a scant 300,000 share today and only a small amount traded below $0.44/share which indicates to me that the sellers are exhausting themselves.

The $1.25 private placement comes free trading on December 22nd. one day after the last full day of trading to claim a tax loss for 2012. The markets will be open on December 24th  but I believe there will be no one around to facilitate further market sell off (I will throw in a $0.38 bid for that day just in case).

Any fund position that holds the $1.25 shares have most likely short sold the position and taken a tax loss and will deliver the short shares upon the expiration of the hold period.

After checking SEDAR I noticed that there was not many in the money warrants left as of September 30  which tells me that anyone who participated in the $0.45/share and below financing's have taken their money off the table

All this in mind I picked up another few thousand shares today at $0.44 bringing my total amount of up to 63,000 share of Goldquest.

If management was smart they would hold off on any further news releases until the new year. Any news between now and 2013 will be muted with a ton of sell orders.

I have clearly laid my biggest leveraged bet on Goldquest and I look forward to the new year.

Depressed Venture Exchange starts a casualty list

Today's market seems to be putting rift into Vancouver's so called Merchant Banks with Progressive IR splitting ways with mass cross resignations.

Partners Kris Kottmeier and Toma Sajonky both releasing joint "I QUIT" statements today.

This news release from Stoneshield Capital:

Stoneshield Capital Corp. directors Toma Sojonky and Hans Rasmussen have resigned from the company's board of directors to pursue other business interests.
The company would like to thank Mr. Sojonky and Mr. Rasmussen for their years of service to the Stoneshield.
The company's board currently consists of Kris Kottmeier, Allen Ambrose and George Cole.

And this from Driven Capital:

 Krister A. Kottmeier has resigned from Driven Capital Corp.'s board of directors. The board of directors expresses its gratitude to Mr. Kottmeier for his contributions to the company during his tenure.

Aside from the niceties I wonder if they both murmured don't let the door hit you on the ass on the way out.

Mackie Research Targets Taipan Resources at $1.00

Mackie Research initiated research on Taipan Resources touting a $1.00 share target. Now I believe Taipan can eventually get to $1.00 but it is going to take a lot of work in this market environment.

I would expect a decent pop if Taipan partners up with some deep pocket players. In the mean time I have a sell order in at $0.38 and $0.39. If I do sell these two positions I will be left with 16,000 risk free shares.

Added if these shares do sell I will look to rebid these shares in the low $0.30's again.

Taipan has provided the opportunity to swing trade a position by buying 10,000 shares and selling 9000 shares with a $0.03-$0.04 spread.

Mackie Research Capital has initiated coverage on Taipan Resources (TPN.V).

 

·         4^th largest acreage holder in Kenya outside of Tullow and Africa Oil

·         Currently undergoing a farm out of Block 2B (expected to be completed by end of 2012)

·         20% Working interest in Block 1 (Afren 80%)

·         Management discovered over 180 billion barrels

·         AOI recently raised over $230,000,000

 

From Mackie Report

 

“Taipan provides investors with exposure to high-impact conventional oil plays located onshore within Kenya ’s hot rift basin play. Based upon a regional transaction cost of $1.00 per prospective barrel, we value Taipan’s prospective resources at $1.02/fd share”

 

“We believe the potential exists for significant share price appreciation once Taipan secures a farm-out partner and we see significant additional upside if a carried exploration campaign results in a new pool discovery”

Brent Cook on the dismal state of junior explorers

I found this link over at the Incakolanews blog and if you have not visited Otto's excellent blog it is a worth while read everyday. Otto has no problem exposing the less than shady side of the junior world and I applaud him for having the balls to do so.

Anyways Brent Cook sums up the junior markets in a very sobering fashion of which I agree that there needs to be some house cleaning on Howe Street.

To many Howe Street Shysters have been sucking money out of the public pockets and this market is weeding them out.

Read Brent's article here.

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/14819?utm_source=delivra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Gold%20final%20streetwise-reports%2012/05/2012%2014:38:43

Update: In light of this article I have reviewed a few of my positions, I have concluded that Stoneshield Capital could fall into the scenario that Brent describes. I have opted to unload my 40,000 shares at $0.025/share for a significant loss. Unfortunately this loss was in a sheltered account so I do not get the benefit of a tax loss. Personally I do not see any upside in continuing to hold Stoneshield and this money will be put to use in higher quality deals with competent management that attracts quality projects.

Osisko Mining OSK.TO way oversold

Ever since the announcement of Osisko Mining's friendly takeover of Queenston Mining on November 12th. Osisko has lost 30% of their shareholder value. Obviously pundits have shown their dislike for this deal by selling the shares down to $7.29 today.

I have been chipping away with a few hundred shares here and there and the graph is telling me that this deal is very oversold.

The things I look for is the Relative Strength Index below 30, nearing recent support level and the formation of Morning Stars in the Candlestick chart.

Osisko also has a reported short position of 30,000,000 shares as of November 15, 2012. Now this is seen as bullish as these shares need to be repurchased, ultimately  providing support.

Lastly, tax loss selling is clearly indicated in the market place.

These are some of the factors that I take into consideration when looking at re entering a position in Osisko.

Happy trading

A little insider trading update, yup that is also a good indication

My 2012 Tax loss list of potential purchases

We are in the full swing of tax loss selling right now and I have been chipping away at a few deals with some lower bids.

Right now I have about 15 deals that fall onto my tax loss bottom fishing list and 5 that fall onto my stink bid list.

Now all these ideas are mine and they have a finite time line for purchase, have my open orders in for some of these deals that expire on December 21st (effectively the last trading day of 2012).

If I do get filled on the stink bid deals I will be looking to offload the position in January, 2013. The idea behind these trades is to catch the spring back after the compression in share price.

I will start with the stick bid list first:

Latin American Minerals LAT.V bidding for 10000@$0.05
Cap-Ex Ventures CEV.V bidding for 10000@$0.15
Sanatans Diamonds STA.V bidding for 5000@$0.22 (to date I bought 1000 there)
Tolima Gold TOM.V bidding for 10000@$0.12
Paget Minerals PGS.V bidding for 10000@$0.05

If I get filled on any of these, great if I do not I will not bother me.

Next on my list of potential tax loss buys

Sangold SGR.TO between $0.75-$0.77 (bought 1000 so far at $0.83)
Goldquest GQC.V between $0.40-$0.45 (I have over 50,000@$0.51)
Unigold UGD between $0.22-$0.25 (now down to 6000 shares)
Brigus Gold BRD.TO around $0.90
Taipan Resources TPN.V around $0.24 (I own 44,000shares)
US Silver USA.TO around $1.75
Osisko Mining OSK.TO between $7.00-$7.50 (I have been buying lately below $7.50)
B2Gold BTO.TO below $2.90
Bear Creek Mining BCM.V below $2.30
Sunward Exploration SWD.TO around $0.90
Great Panther GPR.TO around $1.50
CB Gold CBJ.V around $0.75
Lydian Internatonal LYD.TO around $1.90
Scorpion Gold SGN.TO around $0.50
Renegade Petroleum around $2.10

I can not buy all of these deals but will have them on a list in case the opportunity arises where the share price gets pushed into my purchase zone.

Any positions that I have below $0.05 I will not bother to add as these deals are dead in the water and any purchase will tie up precious liquidity.

These include Royce Resources, Stoneshield Capital, Teslin River Resources, GMV Resources and Fortunate Sun Mining

Good luck and happy fishing.

Update: I picked up another 1000 Sangold at $0.78 this morning, I will add to this position at the $0.75 level or below.

Update # 2 Picked up 2000 Sangold @ $0.76 and 1500 Goldquest @ $0.42, I moved my Tolima bid down to $0.12 due to the 100,000 shares at $0.18 offered by Canaccord.