One of my followers asked me for my opinion on Sandspring Resources SSP.V. Sandspring is a classic example of a deal going from IPO > speculators entering > positive drilling results > PEA/NI43-101 reality > speculators exiting > tax loss selling > value buying > eventual production / take over.
Let me be clear up front that this post is about the cycle of junior explorers and this scenario can also be applied to other juniors including Exeter Resources XRC.TO. This post is not meant to comment on the merits of the deal or management but the ebb and flow of participants in a stock. As of today Sandspring has found support at $1.20/share over tax loss selling season so the short term support can be found around this price.
So lets breakdown the following chart from the IPO in December 2009. The next leg up to April 2010 is driven mostly by initial speculation. From May 2010 we see the classic sell in May and go away until the next leg up in September 2010. This leg up to the $3.50 mark is driven by positive drill results and speculative frenzy. From the high at $3.50 in December 2010 until March there is a news vacuum as Sandspring awaits their Preliminary Economic Assessment and the NI 43-101. The graph shows a bump to the 52 weak highs on the release of the PEA and NI 43-101. With the release of the PEA and the 43-101 Sandspring has now established what they have in the ground and what it will cost to develop their property into production.
Since the release of the PEA and the NI 43-101 the speculation and the speculators are moving out as Sandspring has now established a resource of 4.3 million ounces of gold and 535 million pounds of copper. Capital Expenditure (Cap-Ex) to develop this resource is approximately $637 million.
Today Sandspring is trading at $1.30/share with $20MM in the bank and a production time line of 2015. The speculative buyer has exited the buy side while the value buyer is waiting for further de-risking of the development of this resource. A Cap-Ex of $637MM is a lot of money to take this deal into production and poses a significant challenge for management.
Short term risks to the down side include 5.4 million $0.50 warrants expire in November 2012 which are in the money. Between now and final production in 2015 there is
political risk in regards to Africa ( I was corrected this deal is in South America which has a much more favorable political climate than Africa) and economic risk in regards to raising the Capital Expenditure.
One thing I want to comment on is the present support of certain mutual funds in Sandstorm. Yes it is the Holy Grail to get funds involved in your deal as it is a ringing endorsement of the quality of the project. But it can also be a double edged sword. When mutual funds decide to sell due to any number of reasons including redemption's, change of management, etc etc they sell at any cost and show no mercy to the market.
That being said (all figures are approximate) Sentry Investments owns 6.5M shares, Libra Advisors 6.3M shares, RBC Global Asset Management 5.8M shares, AGF Investments 3M shares Acuity Investment Management 2.8M shares and Sprott Asset Management 1.5M shares are all involved.
Currently Sandspring has support at $1.20/share and short term resistance at $1.50/share and medium term resistance of $1.80/share.
Two scenario's are going to play out for Sandspring, one the management has the ability to take this deal into production or management further develops and de-risk's Sandstorm and some major takes them over. Between now and then Sandstorm will further dilute their shares to get to the finish line.
( I am not long or short Sandstorm and all figures are taken from Sedar and Sandstorms presentation, if any errors are found please email me the corrections.)